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The Limitations of the Mind – Factors Determining the Reliability of Intelligence Analysis

Автор/и:

Vasya Vasilev

E-mail: vas_ya@abv.bg

Vasya Vasilev is the chief assistant professor, PhD in “National Security” in the “Special Training” department of the “Information and Security” branch at the National Defense College “G. S. Rakovski” in Sofia. His scientific interests are in the field of extraction, processing, analysis and synthesis of information related to the study of military-political security problems. An important aspect is also the questions concerning the construction and development of critical and creative thinking, as well as the methods and techniques for their improvement.


Страници от броя

pp. 262-278

Резюме

The article reviews the most important factors identified by cognitive psychology, such as the limitations of the mind, on how people, even experts in intelligence analysis, process incomplete and ambiguous information about military-political issues, processes, and phenomena to make judgments and conclusions in their reports to the state and military leadership, partner services and headquarters of NATO and the EU. The specific features distorting the perception and interpretation of information are examined, and practical examples and evidence are given for some of the factors.

Ключови думи

limitations of the mind, prejudices, biases, attitudes, intelligence analysis.


APA standard citation:

Василев, В. (Юни 2024). Ограниченията на ума – фактори, определящи достоверността на разузнавателния анализ. Сигурност и отбрана(1), 262-276. https://institute.nvu.bg/sites/default/files/inline-files/2024-1-17-vasilev.pdf // Vasilev, V. (Yuni 2024). Ogranicheniyata na uma – faktori, opredelyashti dostovernostta na razuznavatelniya analiz. Sigurnost i otbrana(1), 262-276. https://institute.nvu.bg/sites/default/files/inline-files/2024-1-17-vasilev.pdf

Chicago standard citation:

Василев, Вася. „Ограниченията на ума – фактори, определящи достоверността на разузнавателния анализ.“ Сигурност и отбрана (Издателски комплекс на Национален военен университет „Васил Левски“), № 1 (Юни 2024): 262-276. // Vasilev, Vasya. „Ogranicheniyata na uma – faktori, opredelyashti dostovernostta na razuznavatelniya analiz.“ Sigurnost i otbrana (Izdatelski kompleks na Natsionalen voenen universitet „Vasil Levski“), № 1 (Yuni 2024): 262-276.

Harvard-Anglia standard citation:

Василев, В., 2024. Ограниченията на ума – фактори, определящи достоверността на разузнавателния анализ. Сигурност и отбрана, Юни, Брой 1, с. 262-276. // Vasilev, V., 2024. Ogranicheniyata na uma – faktori, opredelyashti dostovernostta na razuznavatelniya analiz. Sigurnost i otbrana, Yuni, Broy 1, s. 262-276.

MLA standard citation:

Василев, Вася. „Ограниченията на ума – фактори, определящи достоверността на разузнавателния анализ.“ Сигурност и отбрана 1 (2024): 262-276. <https://institute.nvu.bg/sites/default/files/inline-files/2024-1-17-vasilev.pdf>. // Vasilev, Vasya. „Ogranicheniyata na uma – faktori, opredelyashti dostovernostta na razuznavatelniya analiz.“ Sigurnost i otbrana 1 (2024): 262-276. <https://institute.nvu.bg/sites/default/files/inline-files/2024-1-17-vasilev.pdf>.